MANY TO MANY 67

MOMENTUM BUILDS FOR AN END TO NUCLEAR WEAPONS
By Commander Robert Green RN (Ret'd)*

On 21 September 1998, President Nelson Mandela of South Africa announced in the United Nations that eight courageous governments would introduce a General Assembly resolution calling for a new agenda on nuclear disarmament, and urged all countries to support the resolution.

A month after the first Indian nuclear test, evidence of new, genuine leadership in nuclear disarmament by governments had come with the surprise launch on 9 June by the Foreign Ministers of Brazil, Egypt, Mexico, New Zealand, Slovenia, South Africa and Sweden of a Joint Declaration "Towards A Nuclear Weapon-Free World: The Need For A New Agenda". Known as the New Agenda Coalition, they did introduce their UN resolution in late October calling for an unequivocal commitment by the recognised nuclear weapon states plus India, Israel and Pakistan to get rid of their nuclear arsenals, and to demonstrate it by taking several immediate practical steps.

The declaration and resolution were welcomed by the Middle Powers Initiative, a network of international citizen organisations campaigning for the elimination of nuclear weapons, and which had been seeking such a coalition of influential governments free of the Cold War blocs. This aim having been achieved through independent action by the New Agenda Coalition, the new immediate priority was to help mobilise civil society and governments in support of it.

Though its inception pre-dated the South Asian nuclear crisis, the timing was excellent. This historic development, bringing together eight middle-power governments determined to act for humanity and the planet, posed a serious challenge to the nuclear weapon states which they could not ignore. The Coalition represents the overwhelming majority of states which have clearly lost patience with the lack of progress towards a nuclear weapon-free world. Latest evidence of this came in the UN General Assembly in December, when the resolution was adopted by 114 votes to 18, with 38 abstentions. More importantly, every non-nuclear NATO member state except Turkey abstained, despite explicit orders from the US, UK and France to oppose it. This at last forced a real internal debate on NATO nuclear policy, which remains unchanged ten years on from the end of the Cold War.

On 11 May 1998, India had carried out its first test three days after a preparatory conference for the year 2000 review of the Non-Proliferation Treaty had broken up in disarray, because of the intransigence of the US, Russia, UK and France about nuclear disarmament. The non-proliferation regime had begun to unravel, vindicating a stream of authoritative warnings over the previous two years, including from the Canberra Commission on the Elimination of Nuclear Weapons, 61 former military leaders and 120 civilian leaders – all of whom had urged rapid movement to eliminate all nuclear arsenals before it is too late.

With Russia sliding into chaos, there is a revived awareness of the growing risk of accidental nuclear war – recently linked to the "Millenium Bug" in computers – through the continuing hair-trigger alert status of nuclear forces in the US, Russia and France. An encouraging example of this was the UK decision in its recent Strategic Defence Review to relax the notice to fire of its single deployed Trident submarine from minutes to several days, and cut the UK nuclear arsenal by a third. Nonetheless, the UK still insists that its nuclear weapons are essential for its security, while criticising India and Pakistan for following its example.

Although the New Agenda Coalition has made a promising start, its Joint Declaration and UN resolution are cautious, calling for an agenda which does not force the pace enough. By contrast, the Middle Powers Initiative is acting on the growing evidence that public opinion, even in the US and UK, overwhelmingly wants rapid progress in negotiating a Nuclear Weapons Convention. With chemical and biological weapons banned by enforceable global treaties, the legal case against nuclear weapons is seen as self-evident. That is why the Middle Powers Initiative is promoting debate on a Model Nuclear Weapons Convention (see "Many to Many", December 1997).

In November 1997, at the request of Costa Rica, the UN circulated the model as a discussion draft (UN document A/C.1/52/7). Drafted by an international team of lawyers, scientists and disarmament experts, it offers a plan for the prohibition and elimination of nuclear weapons in a series of graduated, verifiable steps.

It draws upon the widely-acclaimed Chemical Weapons Convention, which entered into force on 29 April 1997. As with nuclear weapons, the knowledge of making chemical weapons cannot be disinvented. Yet that did not prevent the world from making a legally binding, enforceable treaty to ban them – despite the fact that verification of compliance is far more difficult for chemical weapons than for nuclear weapons.

The purposes of the model include:

* Demonstrating the feasibility of the elimination of nuclear weapons.

* Encouraging governments to resume nuclear disarmament negotiations.

* Identifying policies that are inconsistent with the goal of nuclear disarmament.

* Overcoming some of the barriers that make nuclear abolition appear utopian.

* Preparing for the day when the political will to begin negotiations emerges.

A recurrent response to the demand for a Model Nuclear Weapons Convention is that in today's political environment it is "premature" or "unrealistic idealism" to consider and discuss a framework for the prohibition and elimination of nuclear weapons. It is not premature to begin devising a plan, nor for states to begin developing the verification mechanisms. For many years, a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty seemed beyond reach: yet verification mechanisms were studied by a scientific group of the Conference on Disarmament, which helped the negotiations once they began.

In light of the ongoing threat posed by nuclear weapons as demonstrated by the South Asia tests, discussions of a Nuclear Weapons Convention should be seen as an urgent need rather than a premature wish. The model is offered to states and NGOs in the hope that it can inspire and enrich these discussions.

Meanwhile, the New Agenda Coalition deserves and needs the public and media support given to the anti-landmines campaign. The indiscriminate cruelty and immediately visible effects of landmines were creatively exposed; but, as the World Court reminded us, only nuclear weapons "have the potential to destroy all civilization and the entire ecosystem of the planet."

Apparently unaware of the irony, President Clinton said on learning that Pakistan had followed India in testing nuclear weapons: "I cannot believe that we are about to start the 21st century by having the Indian sub-continent repeat the worst mistakes of the 20th century, when we know it is not necessary to peace, to security, to prosperity, to national greatness or to personal fulfilment."

The leaders of the nuclear weapon states must be helped to translate the will of "We, the peoples" into decisive action. On the eve of the 21st century and a new millenium, the New Agenda Coalition is challenging those leaders to seize this opportunity on behalf of humanity and the planet.


*With his partner Kate Dewes, Robert Green co-coordinates the Disarmament & Security Centre in Christchurch for the NZ Peace Foundation. They are members of the International Steering Committee of the Middle Powers Initiative. He is the author of "Fast Track to Zero Nuclear Weapons", a Briefing Book written for the Middle Powers Initiative, obtainable from him (cost NZ$15.00) at:
PO Box 8390, Christchurch, New Zealand.
E-mail: ,




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