Issue 63 March 1998
Into the Greenhouse Century
A faltering first step, when a giant leap was needed, was the general verdict as the Kyoto Climate Summit limped to an exhausted conclusion in early December. After ten days of very public debate, agreement was reached only after the final session overran by 16 hours, with resolution of certain critical matters postponed to a later date.
The summit was the Third Session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The main item on the agenda was the adoption of a protocol containing legally-binding greenhouse gas emissions controls for the industrialised nations, moving beyond the current precautionary target of stabilisation by the year 2000 with new targets for a new century.
The resulting Kyoto Protocol commits the industrialised nations to reduce their collective emissions of six greenhouse gases by 5.2 per cent, averaged over the period 2008-2012. Carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide reductions are to be from 1990 levels, the existing baseline. For three long-lived industrial gases – the hydroflurocarbons, perfluorcarbons and sulphur hexafluoride – the baseline can be 1990 or 1995.
A step in the right direction most sure but, with carbon cuts of some 60% needed to halt global warming, many had hoped for a stronger commitment to mark entry into the greenhouse century.
As the negotiations worked through the night, flexibility proved one way to resolve disagreement. Some parties, such as the European Union, took on cuts of 8 per cent. The United States reluctantly accepted a reduction target of 7 per cent. Other nations may increase their emissions – Australia, for example by 8 per cent and Iceland by 10 per cent.
Flexibility also extends to the manner in which commitments can be met. Through joint implementation, parties can finance emissions reductions in other industrialised nations and take credit for the outcome. An emissions trading mechanism will permit industrialised nations to buy and sell 'excess' emissions credits. Details of these schemes could not be resolved and negotiations will continue over the next year.
Developing nations are not covered by formal emission controls at this stage of treaty implementation. Third World delegates did, however, play a major part in Kyoto, holding the industrialised nations to their obligation to take the first step in curbing emissions, as explicitly stated in the treaty.
Michael Zammit Cutajar, Executive Secretary of the Convention, pronounced the meeting a success, saying "the Kyoto Protocol provides for real and significant greenhouse gas reductions". But the event was severely marred by the display of tension, most notably between the United States and other nations. This does not bode well for the future, particularly if and when we move beyond the current precautionary phase and much deeper cuts are required. Many observers felt that the many loopholes could seriously undermine the agreement. And, with the Clinton administration constrained by Senate fears over economic costs, it is not even certain that the United States will be able to ratify the Protocol.
Three issues are likely to dominate the next stage of negotiation and implementation. Given that many industrialised nations will fail to meet their existing target of stabilisation by the year 2000, serious consideration must be given to means by which compliance can be encouraged, if not legally enforced.
There is likely to be much debate over joint implementation and emissions trading. Advocates argue that emissions trading, for example, is the most efficient means of achieving significant reductions. Others see this as a device for industrialised nations to avoid responsibility for their own emissions. There are serious questions to be resolved regarding monitoring, allocation of credit, fair play and justice.
Growth in emissions is already marked in the rapidly-industrialising nations and is likely to accelerate and pressure will be on the South to accept limits on emissions trends. Under what conditions will southern nations accept formal targets? What support will be available from the historic polluters of the North to switch the South onto a greenhouse-friendly development path? This issue may well prove the most intractable unless the tensions in Kyoto can be replaced by effective cooperation.
Cynicism was the dominant response as the hot air dissipated over Kyoto. But perhaps disillusionment with this intensely political process will focus much-need attention on the many and varied ways in which individuals, non-governmental organisations, businesses and governments, in both North and South, are already responding effectively to the threat of global warming by conserving resources, reducing emissions and limiting environmental vulnerability.
People are acting not only to meet the dictates of a global convention, but also because these measures represent the plain common sense of benefit in the here-and-now as well as in decades to come. Perhaps we are placing too much emphasis on the top-down process of global targets and national emissions control schedules, blind to the more sustainable progress being made at the grassroots.
This article, written by Mick Kelly, appeared in PEOPLE & THE PLANET, Volume 7 Number 1, 1998. Mick Kelly is co-editor of Tiempo, a bulletin on global warming and the Third World. PEOPLE & THE PLANET is published quarterly by PLANET 21, 1 Woburn Walk, London WC1H OJJ, UK. Fax: +44 171 388 2398. E-mail:
By 2014, airplanes are expected to have doubled their current contribution of 3-5 percent to the global greenhouse effect. Airplanes emit nitrogen oxide, which not only contributes to acid rain, but also damages the ozone layer at high altitudes. Scientists predict that by 2015 half of the annual destruction of the ozone layer will be caused by air traffic.
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